First in Southeast Asia, Indonesia's Ballistic Missile System Changes Regional Power Balance

First in Southeast Asia, Indonesia's Ballistic Missile System Changes Regional Power Balance.

Thursday, August 14, 2025.

Indonesia's discreet deployment of a Turkish-made short-range ballistic missile system in East Kalimantan is a significant move that has "significantly" changed the regional power balance, experts said.

"From a region where no Southeast Asian country has a modern operational ballistic missile capability, Indonesia now has a high-precision strike and rapid-response option that could reshape regional deterrence dynamics," the experts said, as reported by Channel News Asia (CNA). Closely related to the relocation of its capital from Jakarta to the Indonesian capital (IKN), and occurring amid heightened tensions in the South China Sea, this move signals a deliberate shift by Indonesia from a largely defensive posture to a more agile and forward-looking deterrence posture, observers say. Geopolitically, it underscores Jakarta's shift from traditional reliance on the West to diverse relationships with partners like Turkey that are strengthening its influence in global power dynamics.

Experts say the initial deployment choice reflects geopolitical, geographic, and symbolic considerations.

East Kalimantan was likely chosen due to its relative safety from direct attack, its strategic position overlooking the vital northern sea route, and its role as the location of the new capital. This makes it ideal for hosting a robust missile force to protect the national territory and the new capital. The KHAN missile system is a platform with a range of at least 280 km, a range that could be further developed by Turkish arms manufacturer Roketsan. Ballistic missiles are rocket-propelled missiles that can carry nuclear or conventional warheads. The KHAN missile's range extends Indonesia's strike radius into disputed maritime corridors, according to the news site Defence Security Asia.

"Indonesia ordered KHAN missiles in November 2022 and is the first armed force outside Turkey to have them in its inventory," Roketsan Deputy General Manager Murat Kurtulus said at the time. Responding to questions from CNA, Indonesian Army Spokesperson Brigadier General Wahyu Yudhayana confirmed the delivery of short-range ballistic missiles from Turkey to Indonesia. He said the missiles were part of the first batch obtained by the Indonesian Ministry of Defense and had not yet been officially handed over to the Indonesian Army. Therefore, he could not comment on whether the system had been officially deployed in East Kalimantan. He did not provide details on how many KHAN missiles Indonesia had acquired or where they would be deployed.

Ministry of Defense spokesperson Brigadier General Frega Ferdinand Wenas Inkiriwang told CNA Indonesia last Thursday (August 7) that the ministry had not yet monitored the latest developments regarding the missile. First in Southeast Asia, But Not the Last? Indonesia has become the first Southeast Asian country to publicly deploy a modern tactical ballistic missile system. This capability has traditionally been possessed only by major military powers outside the region. This development carries the potential to start an arms race in the region, according to Ridzwan Rahmat, chief defense analyst at Jane's, based in Singapore. He noted that until now, Southeast Asian countries have generally avoided procuring tactical ballistic systems because of their "inherently offensive nature, rather than purely defensive platforms." However, that norm may now be changing. Indonesia's move is likely to prompt other Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries to reassess their own missile and air defense capabilities. In the region, Vietnam is known to possess Soviet-era Scud-class ballistic missiles and North Korean derivatives such as the Hwasong-6, with a range of 300 to 500 km, but these systems are Cold War-era and not newly acquired. Meanwhile, Myanmar is widely believed to possess North Korean Hwasong-5 and Chinese BP-12A ballistic missiles, likely integrated through the SY-400 platform. However, there has been no official confirmation of their regular operational use.

Indonesia's acquisition of the KHAN missile has significantly altered the regional balance of power, according to Ridzwan. "I am certainly concerned about the possibility of an arms race," he said. He explained, "This is the first missile of its kind in the region, and, to date, countries have been reluctant to acquire tactical ballistic missiles due to their range and the nature of the weapon, which is more difficult to intercept given its limited engagement window." "This Indonesian move has dual strategic implications," said Beni Sukadis of the Defense Studies Institute think tank.