Taiwan Can Beat China If The US and Japan Get Together

Taiwan Can Beat China If The US and Japan Get Together

WASHINGTON - A simulation run by the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has determined that Taiwan will emerge victorious if faced with a Chinese invasion in 2026.

However, this victory assumes that Taipei will receive military support from the United States (US) and Japan.

Even that victory, if it did come, would come at a high cost in the three or four weeks of fighting that was expected to ensue.

The results of the war simulation released on Monday (9/1/2023) were carried out using historical and operational research. The model is run 24 times.

Dozens of ships, hundreds of planes and tens of thousands of troops will be lost on all sides of the potential war.

There are also scenarios in the simulation, though rare, where China comes out on top.

According to CSIS, Taiwan must survive and the US must have access to bases in Japan for Taiwan to win.

The group is also running a scenario in which Taiwan does not receive direct military support from Japan and the United States.

In that scenario, China comes out on top. Unlike the situation in Ukraine, the United States will not be able to pump weapons into Taiwan and China will easily isolate the island.

Japan is not committed to defending Taiwan in a potential war with the mainland. However, last year he decided to increase his military capabilities, moving from a "defence only" force to a more substantial force.

The simulation model also noted that war would be disastrous for all countries involved, and that was without considering the possibility of using nuclear weapons.

China has the world's third largest nuclear stockpile while the United States ranks second.

Any potential prolonged nuclear conflict between the two powers would devastate the world and make Taiwan the best of afterthoughts.

While the CSIS simulation model predicts Taiwan will win in most scenarios with the support of the United States, it acknowledges that China may look at the military situation from a different light.

“While our analysis suggests that the United States and Taiwan will win and suffer heavy casualties, it is conceivable that China views it differently,” CSIS International Security Program senior adviser Mark Cancian told The Hill Tuesday (10/1/2023).

"That's why we recommend increasing deterrence so we don't get into this situation in the first place," he said.

While Cancian takes a firm stance on funding Taiwan, he insists the study does not presume that the United States must defend Taiwan with direct military action.

Instead, he said, his aim was to highlight how costly such wars can be.

It should also be noted that CSIS is a notoriously pro-war think tank, and has been funded by weapons manufacturers and defense contractors.

source : international.sindonews.com

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